Every second HVACR business I speak to right now says some version of the same thing:
“We can’t find experienced people.”
Then the Federal Budget landed and suddenly the big answer to the skills crisis was… faster migration processing.
Þ $85.2 million for migrant skills recognition
Þ New TRA assessment systems
Þ Faster pathways
Þ Quicker licensing
Industry groups called it a positive step.
LinkedIn filled up with applause and fire emojis.
Problem solved apparently.
Except it doesn’t solve the actual problem.
Because the HVACR workforce shortage was never just about getting people through the door.
It’s about why they keep walking back out of it.
Skilled migrants are hugely valuable to this industry. Many businesses genuinely rely on them and some of the best technicians in Australia came through those pathways.
But migration was never supposed to become the entire workforce strategy. And yet that’s quietly where we seem to be heading.
The Powering Skills Organisation still projects a shortage of 42,000 workers across the energy trades by 2030. At the same time, capability gaps continue showing up in refrigerants, controls, commissioning and modern systems.
Meanwhile, one in two RAC apprentices still doesn’t finish training.
That’s the bit I keep coming back to.
We spent years pushing young people towards university while treating trades like the backup option for kids who “weren’t academic enough.”
Now we’ve got businesses trying to deliver increasingly technical systems with a shrinking pipeline of experienced people and everyone seems surprised.
The budget speeds up processing. It does not fix what happens on site in year one.
You can get a skills assessment done in three months instead of nine. You still can’t process your way out of poor mentorship, burnout, weak supervision or apprentices leaving because the industry experience doesn’t match the sales pitch.
That’s the real problem.
And deep down, most employers already know it.
AIRAH pointed it out in their own budget response. NCC 2025 capability gaps remain largely unaddressed. Existing building upgrades, indoor air quality and workforce capability all still need serious attention.
The training package review through Powering Skills is important work. But reviews take time. Industry moves faster than policy. And TAFEs still cannot magically produce experienced technicians overnight.
The apprenticeship completion incentive is still available too. Up to $5,000 for RAC completions through to December 2026.
Helpful?
Sure.
But paying someone at the end does not fix what they experienced at the beginning.
And that is where the conversation usually gets uncomfortable.
Because once you strip away the budget headlines, the glossy announcements and the political spin, the responsibility lands back where it always does:
Employers.
The businesses getting ahead right now are not waiting for government to solve the workforce issue for them. They are building workplaces people actually want to stay in. Better leadership. Better environments for apprentices before the industry loses them completely.
If your entire workforce strategy depends on importing already-experienced people forever, that’s not really a pipeline.
The moment visa settings tighten, another employer offers more money or your senior people burn out, the whole thing starts wobbling again.
The answer starts with the people already here and that’s the part worth investing in.
If you are struggling to attract or retain skilled HVACR people, or you are starting to realise the hiring brief no longer matches the technical reality of the work, it is worth having a conversation before the capability gap gets wider. Get in touch.
